Artık post pozisyonları belirlendiğine göre yarışın nasıl gelişeceğine bir göz atalım. Shackleford’un öne çıkmayı sevdiği bir sır değil ve dış 12 direğini çekmesi onun için en uygun kura değil. İlk birkaç dakika içinde 1. veya 2. yola geçmek için fazladan enerji harcaması gerekecek.
Bununla birlikte, buradaki tek hız o gibi görünüyor. Bu yarışta gerçekten hız odaklı başka at yok. Elbette bazı sapkınlar var, ancak arka kısım boyunca Shackleford’la düello yapan Preakness’taki Flashpoint gibi ön tip atlara gitmek yok.
Yarışı çalabilir mi? Normalde mesafe biraz daha kısa olsaydı, hatta 1,5 mil bile olsa, onu bu alandan çalabileceğini söylerdim. Uzamaya doğru liderliği ele geçirmesini bekliyorum, ancak bir ara uzatmanın ortasında dayanıklılığı tükenecek ve isteksiz de olsa pes etmeye başlayacak.
Nehro’nun 6. gönderiden ve Mucho Macho Man’in 10. gönderiden onu ikinci veya üçüncü sırada takip etmesini bekleyin.
Sırasıyla 2. ve 3. direkleri çeken Stay Thirsty ve Ruler on Ice tempodan biraz yavaşlayacak, belki yaklaşık 5 boy, 4. postu çeken Santiva biraz daha yaklaşacak, Shackleford’dan 2-3 boy uzaklaşacak ve Nehro ve Mucho Macho Man’in içine.
Brilliant Speed 5. direği çekti ve erkenden geri çekilerek iyi bir koşu pozisyonu elde edecek, muhtemelen Ruler on Ice yakınlarında bir yerde.
Monzon, kısa süre önce altıncı bitirdiği Peter Pan’da çok geride kaldı, ancak önceki yarışı Sam Davis’te çok daha yakındı, bu yüzden temposunun yalnızca birkaç gerisinde olabilir ya da aynı seviyeye düşebilir. Liderden 10 boy uzakta.
Prime Cut, 8. direği Animal Kingdom’ın içine çekti ve onun liderden 2-3 boy uzakta, öne yerleştirilmesini bekleyebilirsiniz; 10. direği çeken Mucho Macho Man ya eşit şekilde koşuyor ya da sadece onu takip ediyor.
Animal Kingdom 9. postu çekti ve bu da muhtemelen iyi bir pozisyon, çünkü temposundan 5-7 boy düşecek ve Prime Cut’ı kendi iç kısmına, Mucho Macho Man ise dış tarafına devam edecek ve bir yandan da bir pozisyon elde edecek. iyi pozisyon, ancak belki de dönüşlerde 3’lük bir farkla ilerleyebilir.
Mükemmel Değil mi, 10. direği çekti ve orta grup tipi bir attır, bu yüzden Animal Kingdom’ı geçip daha yakın bir pozisyon elde edebilir, belki de tempodan 4 boy uzakta.
Yıllar boyunca pek çok Belmont analisti, atınızı çok erkenden geriye bırakmanın iyi bir fikir olmadığını, çünkü sahaya yetişmek için çok fazla enerji harcamak zorunda kalmak istemediğinizi belirtmiştir; bu enerji, atın ihtiyaç duyacağı enerjidir. streç sürücü. Belmont’u kazanmayı başaran atlar genellikle takip pozisyonundan tempodan 7 veya 8 mesafeye kadar herhangi bir yerde dururlar.
AP Indy, 1992’de Belmont’un temposunun bir miktar gerisindeydi, Victory Gallop, 1998 Belmont’un herhangi bir noktasında en fazla 7 ½ boy gerideydi (her ne kadar Derby’de bir ara 16 boy geride düşmüş olsa da), Thunder Gulch bu aralıkta kaldı 1995’te liderliğe ulaştığında liderin ½ boyundaydı. 1997’de Real Quiet ve 2001’de Point Given hiçbir zaman liderin bir boy gerisinde değildi ve 2005’te Afleet Alex hiçbir zaman tempodan altı boydan daha uzakta değildi.
Öyle görünüyor ki, yarışı kazanma şansı yüksek olan herhangi bir jokeye, atının yarışın çok dışına düşmesine izin vermemesi tavsiye edilir. Animal Kingdom, Preakness’ta olduğu gibi 15 boy farkla öne geçmeyi göze alamaz. Liderin 7’si içinde kalabilirse yarışı kazanmak için iyi bir konumda olacağını düşünüyorum.
Tahmin: Animal Kingdom kazanır. Küçük ödüller için Mucho Macho Man, Master of Hound veya Brilliant Speed.
Artık tahminlerimi bildiğinize göre, bazı bahis stratejilerine bakalım. Animal Kingdom favori olacak. Bu nedenle, yatırımımızdan gerçekten güçlü bir getiri elde etmek için, muhtemelen onu kesin (egzotik bahisler) hem üstte hem de altta anahtarlamak istiyoruz.
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Master of Hounds sabah 10:1’dir, ancak muhtemelen 6 veya 7’ye 1’e kadar bahis oynanacaktır. Bahislerimi girdiğim at odur. Master of Hounds’un kazanması ve diğer tahminlerimin ikinci sırada gelmesiyle, tam bir bedel ödemeli. livebahis güncel giriş yaptığınızda her şeyin ROI ile ilgili olduğunu unutmayın.
Eğer gerçekten parkın dışına çıkmayı denemek istiyorsanız, üçüncü sırada gizlice içeri girebilecek bazı ek uzaktan şutlar bulmaya çalışın. 15:1’in üzerindeki her şey üçlüye değer katabilir.
İyi şanslar ve umarım kazanan bileti bozdurabilirsiniz. 2011 Triple Crown’un son ayağının tadını çıkarın!
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